Since February, Duke Democrats, Duke ACLU, Duke OutLaw and other great student groups have been calling Duke first-years to talk to them about amendment one, and ask if they commit to vote.
So far, just over 30% of the first year class has been surveyed. Calls have been placed to students in alphabetical order, so not per say a random sample, but we have reason to believe the 30% that have been surveyed represent the first-year class as a whole.
When making calls, we code students in one of four ways:
(1) Commit to vote against – students who tell us they plan on casting a ballot against Amendment One
(2) Possible voter against – students who tell us they have either not decided whether or not they will vote, or whether or not they will vote against (this include students who are deciding whether to vote in North Carolina or in their parent’s state of residence)
(3) Ineligible to vote – students who tell us they are not 18, not U.S. citizens, or that they vote in their parent’s state of residence and that they don’t intend to register to vote in North Carolina and
(4) Will not vote against – Students who either tell us they intend to vote for the amendment, or that they “do not vote.” I wish we had broken out these two categories for the purposes of polling, but c’est la vie. I think you will find the results quite striking, even knowing the “will not vote against” category includes those who just don’t plan on voting at all.
Wow! 70% of students plan on voting against, and only 3% have already decided that they don’t intend on voting at all or that they intend on voting for the amendment.
To make this more striking, I’ll take out the ineligible voters (non-US citizens, etc).:
Over 20 times as many Duke students surveyed planned on voting for the Amendment than those who planned on either voting for or planned on not voting.
This flies in the face of assumptions that Duke is a conservative school, illustrates the widespread opposition to Amendment One amongst educated young people.